IMF urges Pakistan to expand social welfare programs beyond BISP; Nine killed in targeted attack on Pakistani workers in Iran
In Brief
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2024
PR Exclusive Update #55
Crackdown on PTI workers and candidates following rallies across Pakistan
On 28 January, law enforcement and police agencies initiated a widespread crackdown on Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) workers and candidates in Lahore, Karachi, and Peshawar, following calls for rallies by Imran Khan ahead of the general elections. The rallies were held in Lahore, Karachi, and Peshawar. The PTI stated it had “informed” the district administration of their gathering, a claim which the police denied. Some members also alleged police raids on PTI election offices, confiscation of party paraphernalia, and the dismantling of banners. Violent clashes erupted between PTI workers and police in Karachi, where 20 people were arrested after PTI members reportedly hit police officers with stones, while 30 arrests and over 50 cases were filed against participants in Peshawar. In response, PTI questioned why supporters were being “tortured for taking out a peaceful rally,” adding that the ECP had “failed in their basic job.” Another post on X condemned the use of tear gas during an election rally, describing it as “one of the most shameful acts” of the caretaker government that proved its "loyalty to Sharif and Zardari." (“Crackdown on PTI rallies amid election trail,” The Express Tribune, 28 January 2024)
Unemployment and poverty have made the lives of people miserable, says Nawaz Sharif
On 28 January, speaking at a meeting in Sialkot, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif asserted that unemployment and poverty have made the lives of people miserable. He claimed that the Pakistan of 2017 is not seen today as the other factors have over shadowed it. He also said that the people who brought these factors to the country have caused great injustice to the people. In the meeting Nawaz said: “Had my government not terminated, the youth would not have been unemployed today.” He reiterated about the inflation by stating that people were unable to pay their electricity bills. He further mentioned that the prices of basic needs such bread, sugar and petrol are beyond the control that people were unable to afford. During his speech he also stated that PML-N is popular among youths as the party provided them with laptops to broaden their horizons. Meanwhile, PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif while addressing a public meeting criticized Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari as “political philanthropist.” (Abid Mahmood, “Development halted with 2017 ouster of my govt: Nawaz,” Dawn, 29 January 2024)
Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari pledges to “bury politics of hate and division”
On 29 January, Dawn reported that Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari arrived at Liaquat Bagh, Rawalpindi to address the political gathering where PML-N had already done so. At Liaquat Bagh, Bilawal pledged to “bury politics of hate and division” and form a “true and reconciliation commission” if his party gets elected in the forthcoming general elections. He also projected that the people, including Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) supporters will make smart decision by voting for “arrow” symbol on 8 February. He stated: “They (PTI supporters) need to realize that Imran Khan is not in the elections anymore and he will not become the prime minister in any case. So, instead of wasting votes on independent candidates, the people should make a wise choice and opt for ‘arrow’ if they don’t want to give a fourth term to Nawaz Sharif.” He further stated that people are not willing to see Nawaz being elected for the fourth time as the prime minister of Pakistan. (Saleem Shahid and Aamir Yasin, “PPP urges voters to pick ‘arrow’ to deny PML-N ‘a fourth stint” Dawn, 29 January 2024)
More than 50 per cent of the polling stations classified as “sensitive,” reveals Dawn
On 28 January, Dawn learnt through its sources that most of the polling stations set up for the next general elections have been classified as “highly sensitive” or “sensitive.” According to sources, 46,065 or slightly more than 50 per cent of the 90,675 polling places that will be set up across the country have been classified as sensitive, with 18,437 of them being classified as highly sensitive. In Punjab, the total number of sensitive and most sensitive polling booths are 18, 620. The sensitive polling station marks up to 12, 580 whereas most sensitive marks up to 6,040 and 32,000 are considered to be “normal” respectively. Similarly, in Sindh, 6, 545 are sensitive and 6,524 are most sensitive and 5,937 are categorized as normal. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), 6,166 are sensitive and 4,143 highly sensitive. However, in Balochistan, the number of normal polling booths is below 20 per cent. The number of normal polling stations is 961, while the rest are categorized into 2,337 sensitive and 1,730 most sensitive polling stations. An official from Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) stated that, “statistics were tentative and might see some changes after the submission of security plans by the respective district police officers (DPOs).” (Iftikhar A. Khan, “More than half of all polling stations deemed sensitive,” Dawn, 29 January 2024)
JUI-F emir Maulana Fazulur Rehman raises concerns over the law and order situation
On 28 January, during the political rally at Larkana, Sindh, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) (JUI-F) emir Maulana Fazulur Rehman, voiced out his concerns regarding the law and order situation in the country and claimed that electoral candidates in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan “are still wary of contesting elections amid security fears.” Maulana addressed two rallies as part of his election campaign. In his speech at Larkana, he said that his party candidates are targeted every week. He further urged the people to “cast their vote wisely”. During his speech he said: “Under what conditions they are living? Do they have the resources to purchase anything for their families? When shall we get rid of these ills?”. Meanwhile, on 27 January, he addressed the gathering at Kandhkot and stated: “If powerful people commit crime, they walk free with impunity, and if the poor are involved in any wrongdoing, they are arrested.” (Waseem Shamsi, “KP, Balochistan candidates wary of contesting polls: Fazl,” Dawn, 29 January 2024)
Forthcoming polls have several similarities with the past polls, says an opinion in Dawn
On 29 January, an opinion in Dawn by Maleeha Lodhi titled, “More of the same?” states that with previous polls, there are a number of noteworthy parallels to the forthcoming elections. According to Lodhi, reincarnations of earlier parties and those put together by party defectors are the same parties running for office. The same politicians are in charge of them. In her opinion piece she states that the pervasive role of the establishment has not changed throughout time. Probing ahead, she stated that it is repeating past mistakes by interfering to prevent one political party from winning an election; in the previous one, it was the PML-N. This time, it is the PTI. Furthermore, she stated that the election campaign’s lack of issues is nothing new. However, a number of historical developments have also been overlooked in the majority of the election-related discourse. Lodhi added that the country is currently experiencing the worst economic crisis it has ever experienced as the polls are being held against this backdrop. This in and of itself is different from the past since it has had far-reaching effects on individuals, such as a crisis in the cost of living, a rise in unemployment, and a rise in poverty she added. In her opinion piece, Lodhi said: “When taken together, all these factors inject a degree of uncertainty and unpredictability into the electoral outcome.” (Maleeha Lodhi, “More of the same?” Dawn, 29 January 2024)
PML-N likely to win Punjab, asserts an opinion in The News International
On 29 January, an opinion in The News International titled “Who will win Punjab?” has argued that the battle in the crucial province of Punjab will come down to two parties- the PTI and the PLM-N. The article further states that Punjab is a “crucial battleground” for the 2024 general elections as out of the 266 National Assembly seats it alone accounts for 141 general seats and 35 reserved seats for women. The article further opines that in a “functional, strong and well-established democracy,” it is the voters who decide the fate of parties and elections. Unfortunately, this is not the case in Pakistan and election outcomes depend on “a handful of feudal, capitalist and influential electables.” In this context, the article argues that PML-N is likely to win this battle as there are some points in its favor- it has the support of “powerful quarters,” it has the maximum number of “electable” along with “strong candidates with money, influence, votes and the right connection.” PTI which was the most popular party in Punjab even after the events of 9 May, has lost the battle on account of some key developments such of its electables quit the party, the crackdown against the party and its members and the return of Nawaz Sharif. (Khalid Bhatti, “Who will win Punjab?,” The News International, 29 January 2024)
ECONOMY
Clarity needed for development challenges, asserts an article in Dawn
On 29 January, an article in Dawn titled “The clarity needed for the incoming regime,” highlighted the disconnect between political rhetoric and ground realities, emphasizing the need for conceptual clarity in addressing development challenges. It further underscored the impact of adhocism on development, the influence of interest groups, and the exploitation of religious and ethnic divides. Despite ongoing socio-cultural and administrative constraints, the article acknowledged trends such as urbanization catalyzing social and economic emancipation. It called for a shift towards “people-centred development” and stressed the changing roles of decision-makers, planners, and the public in achieving sustainable development. (Dr Norman Ahmed, “The clarity needed for the incoming regime,” Dawn, 29 January 2024)
IMF urges Pakistan to expand social welfare programs beyond BISP
On 29 January, The News International reported that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged Pakistan to enhance social welfare beyond the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP). The IMF recommended additional social security measures for the vulnerable, emphasizing the continuation of safe electricity and gas tariff slabs for them. While acknowledging that health and education expenditure targets were met in September, the IMF noted the caretaker government’s capacity limitations in meeting the December target. The IMF underscored the importance of the elected government sustaining social security spending until the end of the financial year. Despite recognizing BISP’s effective emergency assistance mechanism, the IMF suggested improving its administrative structure for enhanced distribution transparency. (Ashraf Malkham, “ IMF for social welfare programme besides BISP,” The News International, 29 January 2024)
SECURITY
TTP launches new wing ‘Istrna’ to target Punjab police
On 29 January, Dawn reported that the Dera Ghazi Khan region police are on high alert as the banned militant group, Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has reportedly launched a new wing named ‘Istrna’ to specifically target Punjab police personnel. The wing includes “highly-trained, well-equipped and ferocious militants.” Three D G Khan check posts- Lakhani, Jhangi and Triman- are particularly vulnerable as they are located along the “hard tribal areas along the provincial borders.” The TTP wing, initially comprising 10-12 militants has allegedly increased its numbers to around 50. The group, responsible for recent attacks in Dera Ismail Khan, reportedly used local hostages as human shields and was helped by some local tribal people. The Pakistan Army has increased its presence in DI Khan. The TTP wing allegedly has links with a militant group in a neighboring country. DG Khan Regional Police Officer Sajjad Hussain Manj confirmed the existence of the new TTP group and stated efforts were on to trace and eliminate them. (Asif Chaudhry, “TTP launches new militant wing to target police in Punjab,” Dawn, 29 January 2024)
IRAN-PAK RELATIONS
Nine killed in targeted attack on Pakistani workers in Iran
On 29 January, The News International reported that armed assailants targeted a room in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province, where 13 Pakistani laborers from Lodhran and Muzaffargarh were staying. Iranian news agency IRNA reported that nine people were killed and two critically injured in the firing. Survivors reported that the attackers instructed all Pakistanis to stand before firing indiscriminately. The Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the attack, initiating an investigation. The Foreign Office of Pakistan also stated that Pakistani authorities were in contact with the Iranian authorities for an immediate investigation into the incident. families in Pakistan urging prompt repatriation of bodies. Victims, seeking work in Iran due to economic challenges in Pakistan, included car mechanics and painters. (“Killing of Pakistani workers in Iran: Survivor says attackers asked all Pakistanis in room to stand up,” The News International, 29 January 2024)
Families of laborers killed in Iran seek their remains and justice
On 29 January, Dawn reported that families of five Pakistani laborers killed in an attack in Iran’s Saravan protested outside the assistant commissioner’s office in Alipur tehsil of Muzaffargarh district. They demanded the repatriation of the bodies of those killed for burial and sought government action against the perpetrators .The victims, employed in Iran for 8-10 years, were attacked by unidentified gunmen who asked about their nationality before opening fire. The assailants also claimed to have taken revenge from. Pakistan. Pakistan’s Ambassador to Iran, Mudassir Tipu, informed that two injured Pakistanis would be discharged soon. Pakistan’s Foreign Office has demanded a thorough investigation and swift prosecution. Civil society groups have supported the families’ demands. The attack occurred amid efforts to restore Pakistan-Iran ties after border region strikes against militants. (Imran Gabol, “Families seek bodies after deadly attack in Iran’s Saravan,” Dawn, 29 January 2024)
Iran and Pakistan foreign ministers to discuss bilateral ties amidst missile exchange fallout
On 28 January, The Express Tribune reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian is set to meet with his Pakistani counterpart in Islamabad to address the recent strain in bilateral ties caused by missile exchanges. The talks follow the killing of nine Pakistani laborers in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province, prompting Pakistan to urge an investigation. The Iranian Foreign Minister assured that Tehran aims to safeguard regional peace and friendship. The ministers will discuss “new terms of engagement” after the recent events, seeking reconciliation, though the rupture caused by the missile exchanges may take time to heal. The standoff originated from Iranian strikes on alleged militant hideouts in Balochistan, reciprocated by Pakistan targeting Baloch terrorist bases. The ambassadors of both nations have recently returned to their posts, signaling de-escalation. (Kamran Yousaf, “Pakistan, Iran to discuss new ‘terms of engagement’ after missile exchanges,” The Express Tribune, 28 January 2024)
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“Despite the repressive tactics employed by the state, millions came out today across Pakistan with one single message: Ghulami NaManzoor!”
-Imran Khan
“Imran Khan is leading a movement that'll define the future of South Asia. Even behind bars his presence can be felt throughout the country and maybe this video is a sign of things to come. This brave man with family fought back for his rights, like all Pakistan should!”
- Ismaeel Qasim
“Today marks the 98th Birth Anniversary of an esteemed intellect & the first Muslim Nobel Laureate from Pakistan Dr Abdus Salam. Revered globally in scientific circles, yet unfortunately remains undervalued in his own country.”
- Mona Farooq Ahmad
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Zorain Nizamani, ‘On voting’
The Express Tribune, 29 January 2024
“Democracy works well amongst voters who carry enough grey matter to weigh between candidates to see what they offer. Voters, who have some idea of how economies are run, how bureaucracies are run and how systems around the world are being run. Not voters who haven’t seen the light of day outside their villages or cities.Voters need to be people who have travelled at least a little to learn how democracies function and how they are functioning around the world. Where votes, not on the face of it, but quite literally, influence the outcome of an election. Plato advocated for a totalitarian regime, am I advocating for that? Maybe. Maybe not. But democracies tend to fail and they tend to reach a point where people call out for a dictator to come and save them. Is that the route we are currently on? Do dictatorships create tyrants? Not really. Democracies create tyrants. The same set of voters who keep voting in the same people create tyrants.”
Editorial, ‘Political decline’
Dawn, 29 January 2024
“With elections just around the corner, there is no escaping the fact that for voters this year, the contest is once again less about choosing between competing ideologies and more about the personalities of the key leaders in the running. The three leading parties — the PML-N, PPP and PTI — waited till days before the Feb 8 election to finally release their manifestos. Ideally, manifestos are issued months in advance, but this time voters and commentators were not given the time or opportunity to go over their parties’ plans in detail, analyse the viability of the promises made, and debate them with their peers. Not only that, a brief glance at the manifestos suggest that there is now very little that differentiates the parties’ ideologically, barring their respective interests in putting either commerce and industry or the people or Islamic welfare and justice at the centre of their plans. It is, of course, much easier to rally the masses with slogans like ‘four legs good, two legs bad’ than to expend intellectual effort on understanding what problems they face and formulating well-reasoned solutions to them within a defined ideological framework.”
Naseer Memon, ‘Continuing crisis’
Dawn, 29 January 2024
“Human development is the inevitable casualty of natural disasters. The devastating blow to the health, education, drinking water, sanitation and housing infrastructure deprives people of services which constitute the pillars of human development. Pakistan, already on the lower rungs of human development, suffered a massive setback on account of the 2022 floods. The Planning Commission’s Post Disaster Need Assessment report paints a bleak picture: its preliminary estimates show that between 8.4 and 9.1 million people are likely to be pushed into poverty and an additional 1.9m households into non-monetary poverty. Sindh was the worst-affected province in the floods. Approximately 70 per cent of the countrywide damage occurred in that province. The Sindhi Association of North America recently organised a daylong conference in Karachi. The state of human development in Sindh came under the scrutiny of development sector experts, government officials and civil society professionals. Compelling facts on various sectors of human development were presented at the conference. It was revealed in one session how the flood aggravated the ordeal of over 12m people in the province.”
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“Most democracies are now suffering from a democratic recession.”
- An opinion in Dawn, ‘Manchurian candidates’
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